Friday, May 20, 2011

Pakistan

ISI chief Shuja Pasha’s warning to India against any attempt to launch a copycat attack on “high-value individual targets” — the current euphemism for state-sanctioned murder in another country — is by far the most explicit that Pakistan has ever given.

The choice of Pasha could be a warning that the US can no longer compel Pakistan to toe its line on policy towards al Qaeda and Afghanistan by threatening to withdraw military and economic aid. This is because Islamabad has found a more reliable backer in China. This is the true significance of Gilani’s four-day trip to Beijing.

From Pakistan’s viewpoint, this is a win-win change because it has exchanged an unreliable patron whose policies are subject to change every four years, and which has let it down time and again in the past citing domestic compulsions, for another that is noted for its strategic thinking and the consequent stability of its policies, which does not have to worry about domestic constituencies.

IMO: In short Pak is trying to paper over its own cracks as it feels that it cannot dismiss Pasha. The US can retrieve their situation and resolve their problems in the region, even making a profit in the process, but is the US administration competent enough to do so. Current US administration is the US equivalent (not of course a clone) of "Yes, Minister" which seems to prevail in the White House.

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