Saturday, May 16, 2009

Pakistan

The Las Vegas Sun says: "It’s important to paint the conflict in ethnic terms, rather than only as a clash between moderate and extremist hues of Islam. The population in the eye of the storm, 41 million Pashtuns, is the world’s largest ethnic group without a sovereign state. The population straddles the Pakistan and Afghanistan border. It’s also critical to recognize the crucible that’s been created in recent years: a war on two fronts and frequent missile and drone strikes that have killed thousands of innocent bystanders — often mistakenly striking gatherings such as funerals.. As the eminent terrorism scholar Peter Bergen has suggested for months, we’re at a serious risk from the war in Southeast Asia, being waged by American and coalition forces to the West in Afghanistan and the Pakistani forces to the East. This not only has coalesced rivalrous Taliban factions and driven less ideological tribes into their favor but also feeds off perceptions of assault and duress to build a violent movement for a Pashtun state.
A number of observers are saying the offensive of state forces against the Taliban in the Swat might be a turning point for Pakistan, the tone in even conservative corners of the country shifting to support the siege after a peace deal broke down between the Taliban and the federal government. The February agreement granted extremists autonomy in the Swat region and allowed for the implementation of Sharia law. The Guardian, a British newspaper, has reported that a gathering of clerics in the northern city of Rawalpindi endorsed the military’s offensive as legitimate “jihad against the enemies of Islam.”

IMO: Oh dear, I wish it were that simple. Basically the rump government in the Punjab has not suited anyone for a long time. Compare the India model, where a democratic election involving many states and languages (my wife speaks four of them, just for bread and butter survival purposes) has more or less suited all, with the Pakistan model where anyone not local to whatever corrupt government is in office is treated worse than a wetback or a nigger has ever been in the USA. It is why Bangladesh had to secede from Pakistan. On top of that we have had saudis and the US turning the place into a hellhole. The Obama administration seems to have improved things a bit, and drones can solve matters with far less US casualties. Also, Imagine all the US physically-disabled ex-military and other near-sighted nascent aeropilots this program can put back to work. I suspect Al Quaeda really are afraid of the drones. But I think if the Paks are allowed any drones, the drones will simply be turned to killing machines used to kill ethnic minorities to advantage the Punjab to Pakistan's detriment - and continuing to overarm Pak will give the US a worse defeat than Vietnam.

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